Choose ONE of the following putative future scenarios:
AL-QAEDA IN IRAN. The US National Security Agency (NSA) has received solid and actionable intelligence which confirms al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is in hiding deep inside a cave complex in Iran’s eastern Khorasan province. Building on a recent history of Iranian tactical cooperation with Sunni jihadists (despite ideological and religious differences), it is clear to US officials that Tehran is aware of and has permitted this safe haven.5 The Trump administration is debating whether and how to launch a military mission on the basis of this intelligence – as a senior military advisor, what is your recommendation?
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4 See, for instance: https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/us-urges-pacific-allies-to-boost-their-military-presence-in- south-china-sea-1.562346
5 See, for instance: https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/feb/18/iran-al-qaeda-alliance-may-provide-legal- rationale/
(3) SOUTH CHINA SEA. At the urging of US officials in the Pentagon,4 the Australian Minister for Defence has been asked to make a recommendation on whether or not Australia should, in the near future, send a Navy vessel to conduct a Freedom of Navigation Patrol in the South China Sea, i.e., a patrol that travels within 12 nautical miles of islands controlled by the People’s Republic of China. The minister has, in turn, asked you to prepare a policy memo addressing the significance of this issue and suggesting a course of action. What would you advise?