Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Year
47 45 49 48 52 50 51 54 55 56 60 63 2014
50 51 52 54 56 57 56 59 55 55 65 81 2015
54 56 58 57 61 62 63 65 67 67 69 75 2016
- Calculate a 3-months simple moving average, for each possible month of years 2014/2015/2016. Calculate the MAD, MSE and MAPE for this method. In addition to the formulas in the computer, show one manual calculation of a forecast of this method, for any month you choose (10 marks)
- Calculate a 3-months weighted moving average with weighting of 5, 3, 2, for each possible month of year 2014/2015/2016. (5 for last month, 3 for the month before last, 2 for two months before last). Calculate the MAD, MSE and MAPE for this method. Show one manual calculation of a forecast of this method, for any month you choose. (15 marks)
- Using the exponential smoothing method with α = 0.8, calculate the forecast for each possible month of year 2014/2015/2016. Calculate the MAD, MSE and MAPE for this method. Assume that the forecast for January 2014 was 50. Show one manual calculation of a forecast of this method, for any month you choose. (15 marks)
- Draw a new graph, which includes the demand graph you did in Point 3 and three additional forecast graphs- one with the simple moving average figures (You calculated in Point 4), one with the weighted moving average figures (You calculated in Point 5) and one with exponential smoothing method (You calculated in Point 6). (10 marks)
- Which method (SMA, WMA, EXM) is more suitable for the SCD, according to each forecast error (MAD, MSE and MAPE)? Explain. (10 marks)
- Use trend and seasonality components of demand to develop a better forecast
(than the methods you used so far in this assignment) for each month of 2017.
Follow the example we studied in class. Calculate: a) the average total % increase per year; b) the average weight (%) of each month. (15 marks) - In order to prove that this method is superior, use it (the average total % increase per year and the average weight of each month) to forecast for each month of 2016, based on 2014/2015, compare to the actual figures of 2016, and calculate its MAD. (10 marks)