Class: are you all familiar with the concept of “black swan” events? The author Nassim Taleb wrote about this concept in his book on probability and defense planning. Essentially, a Black Swan event is something that no-one has seen before and therefore for everyone does not (or even, cannot) exist. In practical terms this means that an outlier is not planned for, that as human beings we can only effectively plan for what we have previously experienced. Do you see this at your organizations, planning for white swans (which we all have seen) but not planning for black swans (which we have not seen)?
Sources: Black Swans”
Class: are you all familiar with the concept of “black swan” events? The author Nassim Taleb wrote about this concept in his book on probability and defense planning. Essentially, a Black Swan event is something that no-one has seen before and therefore for everyone does not (or even, cannot) exist. In practical terms this means that an outlier is not planned for, that as human beings we can only effectively plan for what we have previously experienced. Do you see this at your organizations, planning for white swans (which we all have seen) but not planning for black swans (which we have not seen)?
Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb