The investment process follows a top-down approach by analyzing the economy and the outlook for the stock market, then the industry, and finally the company. Specifically, analysis of the national economy and the stock market should furnish the background knowledge we need. This analysis will enable us to select and analyze a growing industry and then companies in order to select those companies that will offer investments providing satisfactory return commensurate with risk.
Our interest in this top-down approach for this paper centers upon the first portion of fundamental analysis. Specifically, your second assignment should focus upon the following areas:
A. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS – Briefly examine our country’s current and global economic position. (Maximum 2 pages exclusive of any exhibits)
B. ECONOMIC FORECAST – Present an outlook for our national and global economy; this forecast should be for both the short-term (within 1 year) and long-term (1-3 years). (Maximum 2 pages exclusive of any exhibits)
C. STOCK MARKET FORECAST – Present an analysis and outlook for the stock market. This forecast should be for both the short-term (within 1 year) and long-term (1-3 years). (Maximum 2 pages exclusive of any exhibits)
D. SPECIFIC FORECASTS FOR YEAR END 2020 – Because many of you will attempt to be as general as possible regarding your forecasts for 2020 and in addition, we will likely be using this information later in the course, I want you to estimate yearend figures (2020) for the following:
(1) Current (Nominal) $ Value and Annual % Growth (from 2019) for 2020 GDP (Annual) (2) Real GDP $ Value and % Real Growth (from 2019) for 2020 Real GDP (Annual) (3) DMA (December 31, 2020)
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