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Assignment #3

The forecasting performance of NYMEX crude oil futures 2000-15
Write a paper of maximum 20 pages in which you analyze the forecasting performance over 1-4 months horizons for NYMEX futures written on WTI Light-Sweet crude oil during the period 2000-15.

Data
You may find data on the home pages of the EIA
Futures prices http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm
Spot prices http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

The NYMEX crude oil futures contracts expire on the 3rd business day prior to the 25th calendar day in the month preceding the contract month. If the 25th is a non-business day, three days before the last business day before the 25th calendar day.  Thus, the November 2015 contract expires on October 20, 2015. Consequently, you should select monthly price observations from the first business day of each month (spot, first, second and third contract). This would mean that the first contract is roughly a one-month contract, the second a two-months contract etc.

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